未來能源研究所-深海采礦？探索能源轉型的關鍵權衡 Deep-Sea Mining Exploring Key Trade-Offs for the Energy Transition

Deep-SeaMining?Exploring

KeyTrade-OffsfortheEnergyTransition

GabriellaBerman,ElizabethEchavarria,andBeiaSpiller

WorkingPaper26-12July2026

AbouttheAuthors

GabriellaBermanisaPhDcandidateintheDepartmentofEnvironmentalScience

andPolicyattheUniversityofMiami’sRosenstielSchoolofMarine,Atmoshpheric,

andEarthScienceandagraduateresearcherattheUniversityofMiami’sLeonard

andJayneAbessCenterforEcosystemScienceandPolicy.BermanearnedherJDinEnvironmentalLawfromtheUniversityofMiamiSchoolofLawandherMSin

MarineBiologyfromtheUniversityofCalifornia,SanDiego.Herresearchfocusesondevelopingscientificallygroundedpolicysolutionstooceanmanagementchallengesbyintegratingmarinescienceandenvironmentallaw.

ElizabethEchavarriaisPhDcandidateinPoliticalScienceandafellowattheCenterforEnvironmentalPoliticsattheUniversityofWashington.SheearnedherMSinPublicPolicyfromUniversityCollegeLondonasaCheveningScholar,withfundingfrom

theUKForeign,CommonwealthandDevelopmentOffice.Herresearchexaminesthepoliticaleconomyandgovernanceofextractiveandlow-carbonenergysectors,withaparticularfocusonhowstateandnon-stateactorsconstrainorenableextractiveindustries.

BeiaSpillerisafellowandthedirectorfortheResourcesfortheFuture(RFF)

TransportationProgram.SpillerleadsRFF’sworkoncriticalminerals,including

directingRFF’sCriticalMineralsResearchLab,whichbringstogetherinterdisciplinaryPhDstudentsfromacrosstheworldworkingonpolicy-relevantcriticalminerals

research.BeforejoiningRFF,shewasleadsenioreconomistattheEnvironmental

DefenseFund(EDF),wheresheworkedforalmostadecade.Shewasalsoaboard

memberfortheAssociationofEnvironmentalandResourceEconomiststhrough2024.Sheisanenergyeconomist,withexperienceworkingonelectricityandtransportationissues.DuringhertimeatEDF,sheparticipatedinmanyelectricutilityproceedings

inNewYorkandCalifornia,withagoalofusheringinacleaner,moreefficientandequitableenergysystem.

Acknowledgements

WethankThomasHale,EricYoung,AndrewSweetman,ElizabethMendenhall,KrisVanNijen,OliverGunasekara,andCarlosMartínforprovidinghelpfulinformationandguidanceforourpaper.Allerrorsareourown.

AboutRFF

RFFisanindependent,nonprofitresearchinstitutioninWashington,DC.Itsmissionistoimproveenvironmental,energy,andnaturalresourcedecisionsthroughimpartialeconomicresearchandpolicyengagement.RFFiscommittedtobeingthemost

widelytrustedsourceofresearchinsightsandpolicysolutionsleadingtoahealthyenvironmentandathrivingeconomy.

Workingpapersareresearchmaterialscirculatedbytheirauthorsforpurposesof

informationanddiscussion.Theyhavenotnecessarilyundergoneformalpeerreview.TheviewsexpressedherearethoseoftheindividualauthorsandmaydifferfromthoseofotherRFFexperts,itsofficers,oritsdirectors.

SharingOurWork

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1

Deep-SeaMining?ExploringKeyTrade-Offsforthe

EnergyTransition

?

Berman,Gabriella1,2,Echavarria,Elizabeth3,andSpiller,Beia4

1DepartmentofEnvironmentalScienceandPolicy,RosenstielSchoolof

Marine,Atmospheric,andEarthScience,UniversityofMiami,Miami,FL,

USA

2LeonardandJayneAbessCenterforEcosystemScienceandPolicy,UniversityofMiami,CoralGables,FL,USA

3UniversityofWashington-Seattle

4ResourcesfortheFuture

July29,2026

Abstract

Thispaperevaluatesdeep-seamining(DSM)fromapolicyperspectiveinlightofris-ingcriticalmineraldemand.Itassessestheeconomic,environmental,social,andgover-nancetrade-offsbetweenDSMandterrestrialmining,highlightingunresolvedquestionsaboutecologicalharm,commercialviability,benefitsharing,andthelong-termsubsti-tutionofland-basedsupply.BecauseDSMislikelytoaugmentratherthandisplaceterrestrialmining,particularlyintheshortterm,itcouldhaveimportantdistributionalconsequencesformining-dependentcommunitiesandproducercountries.Wealsoex-aminetheunsettledinternationalgovernancelandscape,includingongoingnegotiationsattheInternationalSeabedAuthority(ISA)andgrowingunilateralnationalinitiatives.Wearguethat,giventhemanyuncertainties,policymakersshouldproceedwithcautionwhensettingregulatoryframeworksforandmakingdecisionsaboutDSM.Furthermore,

?WethankThomasHale,EricYoung,AndrewSweetman,ElizabethMendenhall,KrisVanNijen,OliverGunasekara,andCarlosMartinforprovidinghelpfulinformationandguidanceforourpaper.Allerrorsareourown.

2

prioritizingrobustenvironmentalstandards,equitabledistributionalrules,andbroadermineralstrategiescenteredondemandreduction,recycling,andreformofterrestrialmininggovernanceiskeytoensuringasustainabletransitionasDSMrulesdevelop.

1Introduction

Theacceleratingtransitiontowardlow-carbonenergysystemshassharplyincreaseddemandforseveralrawmaterialsusedincleanenergytechnologies,withthesectordrivingaroughly70percentjumpincobaltdemandanda40percentriseinnickeldemandbetween2017and2022,alongsidestronggrowthinothermineralsincludinglithium,copper,andrareearths(IEA

2023

;IEA

2024

).Thesemineralsunderpinnotonlytherenewableenergyeconomybutalsothetechnologyanddefenseindustries,makingthemcentraltobotheconomiccompeti-tivenessandnationalsecurity.TheirconcentrationinasmallnumberofproducercountriesandChina’sdominanceacrosstheprocessingandrefiningstageshaveledtoheightenedconcernsaboutvulnerabilityanddependenceintheeventofexportrestrictions,geopoliti-calcrises,orothersupplydisruptions(Baskaranetal.

2025

;He

2018

;Kalantzakos

2023

).Althoughagrowingbodyofresearchquestionstheprojectionsoffuturedemandforthesemineralsaspoliticallyandfinanciallymotivatedbygovernments,firms,andinvestorsthatstrategicallydeployscarcitynarrativesandoptimisticgrowthscenariostoattractcapital,justifynewprojects,andshapecriticalmineralsgovernancedebates(Vivodaetal.

2026

;?zden-Schilling

2024

),therearemultifacetedpressurestoexpandproductionwhilediversify-ingsources.Deep-seamining(DSM)hasemergedasapotential—ifcontentious—alternativetoterrestrialextraction.

DSMwouldexploitmineralsontheseafloorandinthesubsurface,includingpolymetallicnodulesinabyssalplains,cobalt-richferromanganesecrustsatseamounts,andpolymetallicsulfidesathydrothermalvents(Milleretal.

2018

).SomeoftheseresourcescanbefoundwithinExclusiveEconomicZones(EEZs),butmostareintheinternationalseabed.TheClarion-ClippertonZone(CCZ)inthePacificOcean,wherepolymetallicnodulesareesti-matedtocontainmorenickel,manganese,andcobaltthanallterrestrialreservescombined,isperhapsthemostpromisingsite(VanNijenetal.

2018

).DSMforpolymetallicnodulesislikelytobeginintheCCZinthenearfuture,butuncertaintiesfuelthedebatearounditsimplementation:Whatarethespatiotemporalbreadthandseverityofitspotentialneg-ativeimpactsonmarineecosystems?WilloceansstillbeabletoprovideservicescriticalforlifeonEarth,suchascarbonsequestrationandnutrientcycling,andsupportothermarineresources,suchashealthyfisheriesandmarinegeneticresources?WhetherDSMwillbeeconomicallyviablecomparedtocurrentland-basedexploitationalsochallengesinvestors’

3

andgovernments’decisionmaking.

Aproductiveframeworkforexploringthesechallengesshouldexplicitlyaddressthein-herenttrade-offsofmeetingrisingdemandforcriticalminerals.ChoicesbetweencontinuedrelianceonterrestrialreservesandtheauthorizationofDSMnecessarilygenerateasym-metricdistributionsofbenefitsandharmsacrosseconomic,environmental,andsocialdi-mensions—forexample,betweenstreamlinedsupplysecurityandecosystemintegrity,orbetweendiversificationofproductionandtheburdensbornebyaffectedcommunities.Acentralquestionrunningthroughthesetrade-offsiswhetherDSMwouldsubstituteforter-restrialminingorinsteadoperatealongsideit,withconsequencesforprices,labormarkets,andthedistributionofrentsacrossfirms,countries,andcommunities.

ThisarticleintegratesrecentresearchandinsightsfromstakeholdersactiveintheDSMspacetoexaminethesetrade-offs.ItbeginswithanoverviewofDSM’semerginggovernancearchitectureandkeychallenges,thenanalyzestheeconomic,environmental,andsocialdi-mensions,andconcludeswithreflectionsonfeasiblepolicypathways.

2CurrentDSMGovernanceFrameworkandRecentDe-

velopments

Afterdecadesofmultilateraleffortstoestablishaninternationalregimefortheoceans,theUnitedNationsConventionontheLawoftheSea(UNCLOS)—initiallyadoptedin1982—en-teredintoforcein1994intandemwiththe1994ImplementationAgreement,creatingtheInternationalSeabedAuthority(ISA).TheISAisanautonomousinternationalorganizationentrustedwithmanagingtheinternationalseabedandsubsoil(knownastheArea)forthebenefitofhumankind,includingoverseeingthedevelopmentofDSMintheinternationalseabed.DuringUNCLOSnegotiationsthedebatearoundaDSMregimeundertheISAcen-teredonconcernsfromdevelopingcountriesthattheywouldbeexcludedfromthebenefitsofseabedresourceexploitation.Theyanticipatedthatabsentappropriateregulationmostsuchbenefitswouldgotoindustrializedeconomies.Throughoutthediscussions,thesecoun-triessuccessfullyensuredthattheconventionwouldincludeacommonheritageprinciplemandatingtheISAtodistributeprofitsandroyaltiesamongallstatesaccordingtoequitablecriteria(Jaeckel

2017

).

Inlinewiththismandate,regulationsforexploratoryDSMwerenegotiatedattheISAbyUNCLOSmember-countriesandfinalizedin2013.TheISAthenbegantoissue15-yearexploratorycontractstominingfirmssponsoredbyUNCLOSmember-countries(Blanchardetal.

2023

).Sincethen,31exploratoryDSMcontractshavebeenawarded(Table1).

4

Table1.ExplorationContractsIssuedbyISA,byCountryandResourceType

Country

Nodules

Sulfides

Co-richCrusts

Total

Belgium

1

1

Brazil

1

1

China

3

1

1

5

CookIslands

1

1

Cross-governmental:

1

1

Bulgaria,Cuba,Poland,andtheRussianFeder-ation

France

1

1

2

Germany

1

1

2

India

1

1

2

Jamaica

1

1

Japan

1

1

2

Kiribati

1

1

Korea

1

1

1

3

Nauru

1

1

Norway

2

2

Poland

1

1

Russia

1

1

1

3

Singapore

1

1

Tonga

1

1

Total

19

7

5

31

Meanwhile,from2011onward,theISAandUNCLOSmember-countriesbegandevelopingaregulatoryframeworkformineralexploitation.Negotiationsslowlyprogresseduntil2021,whenNauru,asmallislanddevelopingstate(SIDS)intheSouthPacificOcean,triggeredthe“two-yearrule.”Thisrulestatesthatuponrequestofaparty,theISAshalladopttherules,regulations,andproceduresnecessarytofacilitatetheapprovalofexploitationplanswithintwoyears(Blanchard

2021

).Althoughthisrequestincreasedthepaceofthenegotiations,theISAdidnotadopttherequiredregulationsatitsJuly2023meeting,missingthedeadlineimposedbythetwo-yeartrigger(Pickensetal.

2024

).

Bytheendoftheorganization’s30thsessioninJuly2025,atleast30majorregulatoryissuesremainedunresolved,continuingtostallnegotiationsattheISAonacomprehensiveframeworkforDSMexploitation(ISA

2025

).Theseoutstandingissuesincludeagreementonafairdistributionofbenefits,determiningacceptablelevelsofenvironmentalharm,creatingguidelinesformonitoringenvironmentalimpact,andestablishingliabilityandinsurancerequirements.Delaysweredrivenbyinsufficienttimefordiscussion,divergentmemberstatepositions,andongoinginformationgapsthatconstrainedthenegotiationprogress(Pickensetal.

2024

).

5

Againstthisbackdropofmultilateraldeadlockandgrowingcallsforrestraint,othercoun-trieshavebeguntoadvancedomesticorunilateralapproachestoDSMthatcouldundercutthecentralroleoftheISA.IntheUnitedStates,TheMetalsCompany(TMC)—aCanadianDSMexplorationcompany—soughttosecureafederallicensetomineintheArea.InApril2025,theTrumpadministrationissuedanexecutiveorderdirectingtheNationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration(NOAA)toimplementastreamlinedpermittingprocessforDSMundertheDeepSeabedHardMineralsResourcesAct.

1

TMCsubmittedaconsolidatedapplicationforanexplorationlicenseandacommercialrecoverypermitintheCCZunderNOAA’snewstreamlinedpermittingprocessinearly2026.ThoughtheagencyfoundthepermittobeinfullcomplianceinMay2026,TMCstillneedstopublishitsEnvironmentalImpactStatementforpubliccomment,afterwhichNOAAwillmakeitsfinaldeterminationonwhethertoissuethepermitandlicensetoextractthenodules.

2

BecausetheUnitedStatesisnotapartytoUNCLOSandthereforeoperatesoutsidetheISAframework,thesemovesexemplifythegrowingtensionbetweenmultilateralrule-makingandunilateraleffortstosecureaccesstoseabedminerals.

3SocioeconomicandEnvironmentalConsiderations

WhenconsideringdecisionmakingaroundDSM,arangeofsocioeconomicandenvironmentalconsiderationsemerge.Theseincludeeconomictrade-offs,bothfromtheperspectiveoffirmsmakinginvestmentdecisionsandforcommunitiesaffectedbyterrestrialminingorpositionedtobenefitfromrevenuesharing.Theyalsoencompasssocialdimensions,suchaslaborimpactsanddistributionaloutcomes,alongsideenvironmentalconsiderationsthatcanhaveessentiallyirreversibleimpacts.Thissectionexaminestheseinterrelatedtrade-offsingreaterdetail,includingthepotentialforDSMtodisplaceorreshapeterrestrialminingactivities.

3.1EconomicTrade-Ofs

DSMhassubstantialeconomictrade-offscomparedtoterrestrialmining.Thesetrade-offsarisenotonlyduringresourcedevelopmentandextractionbutalsoduringtheprocessingandtransportationphases.TheeconomicfeasibilityofDSManditspotentialtobeamorecost-effectivewaytoobtainstrategicmineralsarestillunclear.Althoughsomeuncertaintiesofland-basedminingcouldbeavoidedbyaninternationalregimeestablishedbytheISA,andtransportationthroughmaritimeroutescouldstreamlineproductioncomparedtoter-

1SeeBearaketal.

2025

andLipton

2025

.

2SeeTheMetalsCompany

2026

6

restrialtransportationfromremote,risky,andpoorlyconnectedareas,theaddedchallengeofprocessingpolymetallicnodules—whichfewexistingprocessingplantsareequippedtohandle—alongwithISA’sownregulatorydelayscomplicateDSM’sprofitability.

3.1.1Trade-OfsduringPre-ExtractionPhase

Miningfirmsencountersubstantialeconomictrade-offsduringthepre-extractionphase,chal-lengesthatareparticularlypronouncedfornewentrantsinDSM.RegulatoryuncertaintywithintheISAhasprovenburdensomeforcompanies,complicatingtheireffortstoraisecapitalanddevelopthetechnologyrequiredtostartoperationsonceregulationsareinplace.

Currently,veryfewcompaniesholdbothexplorationcontractsandcommerciallytestedDSMtechnology,andthosethatdoillustratethepressurescreatedbythisuncertainty.IntheCCZ,TMCandGlobalSeaMineralResources(GSR)aretwoofthelargestplayers,withGSRtestingsuccessiveversionsofitsnodule-collectingtechnologywhileregulationsremainincomplete(Kangetal.

2021

).Meanwhile,NorwegianLokeMarineMinerals,which,throughitsUKsubsidiaryUKSeabedResourcesheldtheUnitedKingdom’stwoexplorationlicensesinthePacific,filedforbankruptcyinApril2025afterfailingtoraiseadditionalequityandcitinginvestorreluctancelinkedtothelackofclarityovertheISA’sregulatorytimeline(Khan

2025

).Incontrast,TMChasrespondedtothesameuncertaintybyincreasingpressureongovernments,initiatingaprocessin2025toseekanexplorationlicenseandcommercialrecoverypermitfromtheUnitedStatesundertheDeepSeabedHardMineralResourcesAct(Alberts

2025a

)whichcouldallowittoproceedviaanationalregimeoutsideoftheISA’sstill-evolvingframework.

However,fromthepointofviewofcommunitiesaffectedbymining,thesedelaysmayrep-resentapositivetrade-off,wherebyacautiousregulatortakeslongertomakedecisionsthatcanultimatelyaffectcommunityhealthandwell-being.Permittingforterrestrialminingoftenoverlooksorsuppressestheconcernsofcommunities,eveninlightofnegativeenviron-mentalandsocialimpacts;thedrawn-outmultilateralregulatoryprocessattheISAmayprovidemorebargainingpowerforenvironmentalnongovernmentalorganizations,fishingcommunityadvocates,andothersconcernedabouttheenvironmentalandresultingsocialimpactsofDSM.

Explorationistimeconsumingandchallengingforminingbothonlandandinthesea.OnlyaboutaquarteroftheseafloorhasbeenmappedatahighenoughresolutiontoprovideminingcompaniestheinformationneededforDSM.

3

TheUSgovernmenthastakenstepstoclosethegap:inApril2026,NOAAbegananoffshoremappingprojectoffederalwatersinthePacifictohelpacceleratemineralexplorationintheregion(NationalOceanicand

3AccordingtoUSGS(U.S.GeologicalSurvey

2025

.)

7

AtmosphericAdministration

2026

).Terrestrialminingexplorationcanalsotakemanyyearsandissite-specific(Manalo

2023

).USgovernmenthasalsomadeeffortstoreduceexplorationtimeonland,suchaswithEarth-MRI,whichaimstomapoutmineralresourcesnationwideathighgeologicalresolution(CongressionalResearchService

2025

).

Anothertrade-offthatarisesduringtheminingdevelopmentphasehastodowithin-frastructurecosts—theoperatorsofmanyterrestrialminesmustinvestinsignificantinfras-tructure,resultingingreaterupfrontcosts.Asmineraldepositsareoftenlocatedinremote,underdevelopedareas,miningcompaniesmayneedtoinvestinroadsandwaterinfrastruc-turetofacilitatetheiroperations.Theymayalsoneedtobuildhomes,buildings,schools,andhospitalstosupporttemporarymigrantworkersandtheirfamilies(Admiraaletal.

2017

;Bezzolaetal.

2022

).DSM’slocationintheremoteoceanavoidsthesetypesofinfrastruc-tureinvestmentsaltogether.Conversely,localcommunitiesthatrelyonminingcompanies’investmentininfrastructurewouldreceivenoinfrastructurebenefitsfromDSM.

3.1.2CostofExtraction

Comparingthecostofextractionbetweenterrestrialanddeep-seaminingischallengingbe-causeDSMhasnotbeenprovencommercially;thus,itisonlypossibletocompareprojectedestimatesofDSMextractioncostsinpre-feasibilitystudies(PFSs)withobservedcostout-comesonland.Achallengewiththiscomparisonarisesfromthefactthatprojectedcapitalandoperationalexpendituresforterrestrialminingcanbeoverlyoptimistic:astudybyMcKinsey&Companyfoundthatinrecentyears,83percentofmajorminingandmetalsprojectsexceededtheircapitalexpenditures(CapEx)bymorethan40percent(McKinsey&Company

2024

).Itisreasonabletoassume,then,thatcostestimatesinPFSsforDSMarelikelytobeoverlyoptimisticaswell.TMCreleaseditsPFSinAugust2025foritspoly-metallicnodulestudyintheCCZ(TheMetalsCompanyInc.

2025

).Theprojectedcostshadrisenby27percentcomparedtoitsInitialAssessmentin2021,withtotalCapExforextractionapproximately$554million.

OneoftheadvantagesthatDSMhasoverterrestrialminingistheabilitytoextractmultipleminerals.Miningfornickel,cobalt,ormanganese—thekeymineralsfoundinnod-ules—wouldgenerallyrequireaseparateminetobebuiltforeach,therebygreatlyincreasingtheupfrontCapExrequiredtoextracttheseminerals.Thecostofinstallinganewterrestrialminecanvarysignificantlybylocation.Forexample,inMinnesota,Talon’sTamaracknickelmine’sPreliminaryEconomicAssessmentin2021projecteda$553millionCapEx(Mencarinietal.

2024

).ThisissimilarinmagnitudetoTMC’sowntotalcostprojectionsforextraction,thoughTalonprojectsaslightlylowercapitalintensity(which,accordingtoTalonMetal’spressrelease-TalonMetalsCorp.

2020

-theyestimatetobe$21,000ofpayablenickelequiv-

8

alent,whereasTMC’scapitalintensity(includingtherefiningcosts)appearstobearound$29,000/tofnickel(assuminga1.4percentnickelgradeand30to35percentmoisturecon-tentbyweightofthenodules).Notably,TMC’sestimatesofoperationexpenditure(OpEx)forextractionarequitelow,withTMCpredicting$75.2/wmtforextractionalone.

4

Anotheropenquestionhastodowiththecostofcapitalthecompanywillface.InTMC’sPFS,thecompanyassumedan8percentdiscountrate,inlinewiththecostofcapitalforterrestrialmining.However,giventheemergingnatureofthetechnologyandtheriskinessinherentinfundingsuchprojects,suchalowcostofcapitalisunlikely.AnalysisbyIcebergResearchfoundthata15percentdiscountratewouldproducenegativenetpresentvalueforTMC(IcebergResearch

2025

).

3.1.3ProfitSharing

Anothereconomictrade-offhastodowithcommunity-benefitagreements(CBAs)

5

androyaltypayments.Thepercentageofacompany’sprofitsthatwillbeallocatedtostateorcommunitypaymentsvariessignificantlywithlocation.Forexample,companiesminingonfederallandsintheUnitedStatesarenotsubjecttoroyaltypayments.GiventhelackofestablishedorregulatedapproachestoCBAdevelopment,companiescandevelopCBAsthatminimizetheirpaymentstolocalcommunities.

FormininginEEZs,companieswouldbesubjecttothecountry’sroyaltysystem.UnderUSrules,mininginEEZsinUSterritorieswouldbesubjecttoroyaltypaymentsthatwouldgodirectlytotheUSfederalgovernment,ratherthantheterritories.ThishascausedconcerninUSterritoriessuchastheMarianas,wherelocalcommunitieswouldreceivenoroyaltiesfromnoduleminingcarriedoutontheirshore(TaitanoII

2025

.

ForDSMintheinternationalseabed,theISAisintheprocessofdeterminingtheper-centageofprofitsfromDSMtobepaidinformofroyaltypayments,taxes,andcontributiontoageneraleconomicfundavailabletocountriesaffectedbymining.Importantly,theregu-latoryframeworkoftheISAwouldmandatethatthesepercentagesnotvarywithlocation,asisthecaseinterrestrialmining.BecauseDSMregulatedbytheISAwouldoccurfarawayfromcoastlinesandcommunitiesitisunlikelythatCBAswilleverbedeveloped.However,thesystemofroyalties,taxes,orothereconomiccontributionsprovidealevelofstabilityandcompanyexpectationastohowmuchoftheprofitswillbeforfeitedforthesocialgood.

4TotalOpXisconsiderablyhigher,$243.6/wetmetrictonne;thelargestcontributorisintheprocessingphase.

5CBAsareagreementsthatminingcompaniesdeveloptosupportlocalcommunitiesthroughinvestmentsandenvironmentalimpactmitigation.ThereisnorequiredapproachtodevelopingaCBA,noraretheynecessarilyrequiredbylawtomine.However,therearebestpracticesrelatedtothedevelopmentofCBAsthatresultinequitableandsociallyoptimaloutcomesforcommunitiesaffectedbymining;seeforexampleCascaddenetal.(

2021

).

9

The1994ImplementationAgreementrequiresthattheeffectiveratenotexceedthatofter-restrialmining(UnitedNations

1994

),thoughgiventhewidevariabilityinpaymentsacrossterrestriallocations,itisunclearhowthatoutcomecouldbeachieved.Howthecompanywouldpayitsroyaltiesisyettobedetermined,butthestructureofthepaymentcouldbestructuredasanadvalorempaymentsystemorasystemthatcombinesafixedadvalorempaymentwithapaymentbasedonprofits,eachofwhichpresentsitsowntrade-offsintermsoffirmprofitabilityandrevenuecollectionbytheISA(Lietal.

2021

).

Notably,awell-designedCBAcouldprovidesignificantbenefitstolocalcommunitiesbyprovidingcommunitieswithashareofprofitsandminimizingtheenvironmentalimpactsofDSM.Furthermore,well-designedCBAsareformulatedspecificallyforthelocalcommunity:theyreflecttheneedsandexpectationsofthesurroundingpopulationswhograntthecom-panyasociallicensetooperate.WithoutaCBA,theroyaltysharingsystembeingdevelopedforDSMmaynotadequatelycompensatedifferentcommunitiesacrossnationsfortheim-pactofDSMontheirlivelihoodsandwell-being.Furthermore,marine-basedcommunitiesmaywellbeimpactedbyDSM,evenifitiscarriedoutfarfromland.WithoutaCBAthatincludesagreementsforenvironmentalmonitoring,thesecommunitiescouldfacedamagetotheirlivelihoodsandwell-being,withoutreceivinganymeasureofcompensationinreturn.

3.1.4ProcessingandRefining

Ofthemineralsindeep-seapolymetallicnodules,manganeseispredominant:manganeseconcentrationscanreach34.2percent,thoughthepercentagewillvarydependingonthelocationinwhichtheyareextracted,asshowninTable

2

(Heinetal.

2020

).Thesenodulesalsocontainothervaluableminerals,includingnickel,copper,cobalt,andrareearthelements.Notably,therareearthelementsoccurinextremelysmallamountsandareunlikelytobeeconomicallyextractable(seeGuptaetal.

2024

).

Giventhecompositionofthenodules,mostexistingprocessingplantsareunabletoprocessthem